Two presidents, two prime ministers and two governments: This is still the situation after the presidential election in Ivory Coast in 2010. Laurent Gbagbo holds violently to power in a conflict with the internationally recognized election winner Alassane Ouattara.
The way this crisis will be solved – either by force or by peaceful means – will have strong repercussions for all elections that are going to take place in Africa this year. Whoever will emerge from this crisis as winner, the outcome will send a strong signal to other leaders in the region. Jörg Krempel discusses in HSFK-Standpunkt No. 11/2010 "Côte d'Ivoire in der Sackgasse. Oder: Wie man einen abgewählten Präsidenten zum Machtverzicht bewegen kann" (Côte d’Ivoire in an impasse. Or: How to bring an illegitimate president to give up office.) different possible outcomes of the actual crisis. He analyses the means that can result in the envisaged outcome.
Krempel pleads for Ouattara to assume office, but within a government of national unity that includes ministers close to Gbagbo. In order to achieve this result, a combination of different means such as sanctions, diplomatic pressure and negotiations are necessary. A military intervention would only result in widespread armed conflict with uncertain outcome.
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