Putin’s decision to go to war was based on the assumption of a positive cost-benefit-calculation. Almost two years later, it is clear that the costs of aggression are astronomical and the benefits meagre. Such miscalculations challenge the foundation of rationalist theories such as strategic studies. The new PRIF Working Paper No. 60 by Matthias Dembinski asks how fundamental this challenge is. The article furthermore investigates how strategic studies could reposition itself in order to improve its analytical and prognostic ability in a world in which surprisingly often political decisions are not in line with assumptions of rationality.