HSFK-Standpunkt: Five years of civil war in Syria

According to a recent study of the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR), supported by the United Nations Development Programme, the number of dead and injured people affected by the war in Syria was 470.000 at the end of 2015. 45 Percent of the population has been driven from their homeland, the life expectancy decreased and fell on 55.4 years and 45.2 percent of the children do no longer attend school. 

Many diplomatic efforts aimed at containing or reconciling the civil war. So far, all mediations failed due to the reluctance of the conflict parties in Syria and/or due to international dissent and conflicts of interests. No initiative could implement a stable ceasefire. 

Ultimately, spring 2016 offered hope: After years of bad news, the hostilities in Syria radically decreased, accompanied by a ceasefire between the government and the opposition. What has happened? Russia and the USA had pressured their respective allies and the joint action was successful.  Could this be the solution?

In the latest HSFK-Standpunkt 3/2016 “Fünf Jahre Bürgerkrieg in Syrien. Kein Friede in Sicht und nur machtpolitische Lösungen scheinen noch einen Ausweg zu bieten“, Daniel Müller traces the conflict in Syria, its origins, the involved actors and their particular interests. He shows that the USA and Russia have, despite their different allies and their hitherto followed politics, strong common interest in the region. An unstable region on the Middle East provides ideal areas of retreat and breeding grounds for non-state actors and radical Islamic terror. This endangers the security situation of both countries. The author ponders how both great powers could exercise influence, which obstacles might restrain success and how great chances are to enforce diplomatic solutions with power politics. 

The HSFK-Standpunkt Nr. 3/2016 is available as free download (German only).