In 2007, after the last elections and the strong suspicion of manipulation, Kenia experienced a wave of inter-ethnical violence. The aftermath of these ethno-political conflict gives reason to scrutinize the political landscape of Kenia in the run-up for the upcoming elections in March 2013 and to ask if there will be again such excessive violence between the different ethnic groups.
In HSFK-Standpunkt 05/2012 Sie spielen mit dem Feuer. Schon wieder. ("They are playing with fire. Again."), Andreas Jacobs provides an overview of the political situation in Kenia: a highly centralized state mostly corrupted by old power elites where the idea of a zero-sum situation is pursued by all political parties and politicians. So together with a high ethnically fragmented population and a deep tie between ethnic groups and political parties and politicians, this situation becomes highly explosive.
However, a glimmer of hope for a largely peaceful election process is, as the author says, the reformation of the constitution in 2010, which also includes the decentralization of political power. If this constitution will be obeyed, there might be a way to pacify the ethno-political cleavage.
This HSFK-Standpunkt is available as a free PDF-Download.