For power transition theory (PTT) Germany offers a crucial case. Three wars initiated by Germany/Prussia (the War of 1870/71, World War I and World War II) are among the chief vindications of PTTs central insight, that power transitions are prone to great power wars. However, this conflict potential shall only be realized if the rising power is dissatisfied with the status quo of the international order.
Just as PTT expects, Germany/Prussia was not only a rising power in all three instances, but also dissatisfied with the prevalent international order. Yet, between 1870 and 1939 there are two further periods in which Germany reached parity with the dominant power in the 1920s. Peace prevailed according to PTT because Germany was satisfied with the status quo of the international order at the time.
Working Paper No. 28 “Power Transition Theory and the Peculiar Case of Weimarian Germany”, written by Carsten Rauch, inquires into the satisfaction status of the Weimar Republic, showing that PTT’s standard argument that Germany was satisfied is problematic. Moreover, the author argues that to bring the Weimar case in line with PTT it is necessary to adjust PTT in two ways: to discard the notion of satisfaction as a dichotomous variable and to correct PTT’s tendency to approach complex power relations as if they were simple bilateral stand-offs. This finding has important ramifications for the interpretations of the current global power shifts and a possible future power transition.
This PRIF Working Paper can be downloaded here.