The territorial disputes in the South China Sea (SCS) became more intense during the last years. China seems to increasingly count on creating precedents by aggressive actions and tries to drive other claimants out of the region. Chinese actions have provoked growing resistance: In June 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague published his award on the maritime dispute between the Philippines and China. The PCA concluded that the vast majority of China’s claims in the SCS is inconsistent with International Law and therefore invalid. Despite the clarity of the court a resolution of the dispute is not in sight. Beijing rejects the court’s ruling and there are no possibilities to enforce it.
HSFK Report No. 10/2016 “Zwei Regierungswechsel und ein Urteil: Die Philippinen und Taiwan im Konflikt um das Südchinesische Meer” by Peter Kreuzer takes a look into the past and the future after the PCA ruling. Two conflict parties are of particular importance when it comes to solving the territorial disputes: The Philippines and Taiwan. In both countries, new governments took office this summer. The author analyzes which strategies the Philippine and Taiwanese governments have pursued against China since the turn of the millennium and whether the new governments will initiate policy shifts. The report illustrates that a cooperative and consensus-orientated position, i.e. making concessions to Chinas rigid paradigms, could noticeably reduce the level of the bilateral conflicts.
The Report (in German) can be ordered at PRIF for 6 € and is also available as free PDF.
Recommendations for further reading:
Reinhard Drifte: Japan’s Policy towards the South China Sea – Applying “Proactive Peace Diplomacy”?, PRIF Report No. 140, Frankfurt/M., 2016.
Tongfi Kim: US Alliance Obligations in the Disputes in the East and South China Seas, PRIF Report No. 141, Frankfurt/M., 2016.