Dealing With China in the South China Sea

PRIF Report 3/2018 by Peter Kreuzer about Duterte changing course (English only)

Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomes Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte before the Leaders' Roundtable Summit of the Belt and Road Forum (BRF) for International Cooperation at Yanqi Lake (Photo: © picture alliance / Photoshot)

Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomes Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte before the Leaders' Roundtable Summit of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation at Yanqi Lake (Photo: © picture alliance / Photoshot)

In 2013 the Philip­­pines brought a case before the Per­­ma­nent Court of Arbi­­tra­tion (PCA) against China over ter­­ritorial so­ve­r­eignty and mari­­time rights in the South China Sea. Ad­­mitted­­ly, they were suc­­ces­­sful before the court, but in the after­­math the ten­­sions bet­­ween both parties iten­s­i­fied drama­­ti­­cally - and no con­­flict re­so­lution was in sight. Philip­­pine Presi­dent Duterte, in­­au­­gu­­rated in 2016, as­­sumed a new stance. He offered to ignore the court ruling for the time being, in­­ten­si­­fied eco­nomic re­­lations and re-es­­tab­­lished bi­­lateral com­­muni­­cation chan­nels.

In PRIF Report 3/2018 "Dealing With China in the South China Sea: Duterte Changing Course", Peter Kreuzer pre­­sents two les­sons learned in deal­­ing with China: first, that ap­­ply­ing too much pres­­sure through legal in­­stru­­ments may in­­crease China's re­­sis­­tance and, second, that China's be­­havior can be in­­fluenced through strat­­egies that re­­spond po­­si­ti­vely to the country's core needs and pre­­di­­ca­­ments.

Download (2,33mb): Kreuzer, Peter (2018): Dealing With China in the South China Sea: Duterte Changing Course, PRIF Report 3/2018, Frankfurt/M.